By: Andreia Tarelho
The current global logistics environment can feel, at first glance, relatively stable. Rates in some lanes have normalized, and certain routes appear more predictable than they were just a year ago.
But beneath that surface, the system remains fragile and increasingly sensitive to disruption.
From my perspective working across LATAM expansion and operations, what we’re seeing is not constant disruption everywhere, but something more complex: a network that works… until it suddenly doesn’t.
What’s really driving this fragility?
Several factors are shaping the current environment:
1. Ongoing Middle East maritime disruption
Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf continue to introduce uncertainty into global shipping flows. This is expected to keep adding cost pressure and schedule unreliability into Q2, depending on how conditions evolve.
2. Limited flexibility in global networks
Even where base rates feel steadier on some lanes, carriers and networks have less slack to absorb shocks.
3. Port and terminal congestion
Across several hubs, we continue to see operational constraints, from yard utilization to maintenance issues, creating intermittent delays and equipment friction.
What does this mean in practice?
For companies operating in or expanding into regions like LATAM, these dynamics translate into a more complex operating environment:
- Greater variability in ETAs, not constant delays, but more frequent exceptions
- Total costs increasingly driven by surcharges (fuel, insurance, contingency fees)
- Longer and less predictable transit times due to rerouting
- Downstream impact on inland logistics and warehousing capacity
How are we thinking about this?
In my experience, especially when working on expansion strategies across diverse and dynamic markets, the challenge is no longer just managing cost or transit time — it’s learning how to operate under constant variability and uncertainty.
In this environment, a few practical actions are becoming increasingly important:
- Build buffer time into both ocean-to-port and port-to-inland legs, especially where schedule variability is highest
- Evaluate alternative modes, carriers, and equipment, particularly for time-sensitive or temperature-controlled freight
- Reconfirm cutoffs and documentation timelines; small delays can quickly compound when networks are tight
- Ask your carrier or forwarder for clear allocation commitment details, confirmed vessels, cutoff dates, and equipment availability. This is something we consistently prioritize at Rowl United to reduce uncertainty and improve planning reliability.
- Plan for surcharge components separately from base freight, as fuel, emergency, or war-risk charges can significantly impact total cost
- For time-sensitive cargo, consider alternative ports or routes to reduce allocation risk, based on a lane-by-lane assessment
The environment is not defined by constant disruption, but by increasing variability. What used to be exceptions are becoming more frequent, and small changes can have a broader impact across the supply chain. The challenge today is not only planning for efficiency, but being able to adjust quickly as conditions change.